Death of a Salesman: What Would Happen to Apple or Microsoft if Bill or Steve Die?

Vista, Boot Camp, a possible Google OS, and Virtualization are the topics de jour. And from my general sense of things, it feels like Apple is going from strength to strength while Micro$oft is…. well…. not.
Of course I would say that because I’m writing for an Apple-centric site. But have a look at the comments stir that James’ article caused. It seems that people are *still* really passionate about the OS that they use and are willing to voice those passions.

We’re all wearing different coloured glasses and see things not as they are, but rather as we are. If you love M$ then things couldn’t look better for the company that will proudly bring you the *cough* soon-to-be-released Vista. Same facts, different story if you’re a Mac head.

My wife loves Macs, doesn’t tolerate PC’s and can’t understand why I enjoy playing around with Linux. She is representative of most Mac consumers and had to ask. “That’s Steve Jobs, right?” as I watched a video of him pitch his Campus idea to the Cupertino City Council.

“He’s looking old,” was her next sentence. Her comment triggered, again, something that I have been thinking about for a long time.

Go and have a look at any comments that discuss the current state of Apple and you will see Steve’s name featured pretty highly.

He’s widely seen, justifiably, to be the repeat savior of Apple, a visionary and a tyrannical genius although I think the tyrannical side is mellowing. He can sell ice to polar bears using his reality distortion field (patent pending).

If that’s really the case, what happens when there is no Steve?

From where I sit, Steve Jobs is very much tied into the direction that Apple takes—much more so than Bill Gates at Microsoft. There’s no question that Steve is the more charismatic of the two, but let’s not confuse a popularity contest with what it takes to lead a company.

It’s my impression that Bill is resting on his laurels a little and acting more as a figurehead than as a visionary leader these days.

Don’t agree? Let’s say that both Bill and Steve were talking market share together at a Starbucks when suddenly a brake failure on a Dell delivery truck brought both their lives to a sudden end. Which company would suffer the loss more? The answer isn’t Dell.

I’m not privy to this information. Is anyone outside of the Apple inner sanctum allow to be? But what would happen if Steve, for whatever reason, was no longer at Apple?

What sort of contingency plans are in place for when this happens? There must be some plans for such an event and, let’s face facts, one day Steve will hear the start up chime no longer.

No matter what the plans are, the impact will be huge when, and not if, that finally happens. There is something special about Steve Jobs and what he brings to Apple and I wonder if that’s replaceable.

Can the same be said of other companies or projects? Are other companies largely driven by one person?

Almost all of them are—at least initially.

That’s the way start up companies, start up. It’s usually one or two people doing something they love and initially they do it all because they have to. They make the coffee, they make the product and send out the invoices. They do R and D and collect the mail. They are it because there’s no one else.

An excellent leader will always build away from himself so that others know what to do when they are not there.

But we live in a time when ones employment position has to be justified on an almost daily basis and so people tend to make themselves indispensable by holding knowledge and skills to themselves.

So, does anyone else know what Steve or Bill are doing? What the plan is for the next couple of years? I trust so. They’d be idiots not to tell someone.

Of course it’s not like Apple is a start up company, nor am I so naive as to think that Steve Jobs is the only one who has all the ideas for where Apple should go.

But who else does? Who else has a clear idea of what Apple needs to do to stay on the upslope that it’s on? Can you name these people, and if so doesn’t that just make them the one(s) that are the real brains behind Apple’s direction?

Now here’s the curve ball. What other major OS player is NOT plagued by this issue?

Go to the top of the class if you answered Linux.

The Free and Open Source Software movement is not hamstrung by having a single visionary leader.

Yes, Linus Torvald kind of started it all, but Linux is much larger than him now. He recently attended the Australian Linux Users Group (held here in New Zealand?!) largely unnoticed. Well, do you know what he looks like?!

The linux code is freely available for anyone to look at and change if they know how and want to. The developers are all over the world in different time zones; they are almost all volunteers. Anyone who wants to can make a contribution.

If Linus died of a kinetic energy overdose, care of the aforementioned Dell vehicle, what would happen? It would make the news but things would carry on. The same can probably be said for any of the CEO’s of the major Linux vendors.

Linux is very broad in this respect and, one could argue, has the best chance of survival in the long term.

I’m not holding my breath for Vista - I’m pretty sure that Singularity is where Microsoft will have to go eventually.

As for Apple… this year is certainly shaping up to be an interesting one with Leopard and virtualization a few short months away.

Let’s hope that there’s a “to do” list some where at 1 Infinity Loop and more than one person knows where that list is and how to get the things on it done.